免责声明:本网站持续更新。在所有内容翻译完成之前,其中一些内容可能为英文。

COVID-19预测:病例

COVID-19预测:病例

Reported and forecasted new and total COVID-19 deaths as of April 12, 2021.

新增病例预测解读

  • 本周,对未来4周COVID-19新增报告病例的总体预测包括来自28个建模小组的预测数据,每个小组至少对一个辖区做出了预测。
  • This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 cases will remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next 4 weeks, with 264,000 to 850,000 new cases likely reported in the week ending May 8, 2021.
  • The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of new reported cases per week will likely increase in 1 jurisdiction, which is indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported cases are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

全国预测

全国-预测-发病-病例-2021-04-12
  • The figure shows the number of new COVID-19 cases reported in the United States each week from February 6 through April 10 and forecasted new cases over the next 4 weeks, through May 8.
  • 各模型做出了各种关于社交距离和其他干预水平的假设,可能不反映最近的行为变化。有关作出预测所用的假设和方法的详情,请参阅下面的模型说明。

下载全国预测数据excel icon[XLS - 23 KB]

各州和郡县预测

州和县级预测显示了未来4周按辖区预测的COVID-19病例数。由于不同辖区的COVID-19病例数不同,每个预测数字使用不同的规模。为了便于辖区之间的比较,每个地点的总体图有第二个轴(灰色),显示每100,000人的预期案件数量。仅显示符合一组总体纳入标准的预测;更多相关详细信息,请参见:https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble/external icon。州级、县级整体预测图及相关数据可在下方下载。

下载州预测pdf icon[PDF - 11 MB]

下载所有预测数据excel icon[CSV - 15 MB]

其他预测数据和预测提交相关信息可在COVID-19预测中心external icon获取。

预测包含内容和假设

下文显示总体统计中包含的预测组。如果预测满足一组提交和数据质量要求,则将被包括在内,此处将进一步说明:https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub#ensemble-modelexternal icon

这些预测对保持社交距离的方法做出了不同假设。如需了解更多独立模型的详细信息,请访问:https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon

干预假设分为以下几类:

1并非所有州的图形的预测区间总范围皆可见。请查看预测数据了解州特定预测区间的总范围。